Daily digest, 23 October 2026

Priority 1. UAVs, counter-UAV, military AI and new technologies in conflicts

Russian long-range strikes: the emphasis is shifting toward cheap cruise missiles

"Filin" — a new Russian small ground-launched cruise missile disclosed by the GUR (Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence)

Russia is bringing yet another cheap jet-powered strike weapon into series production. According to the Ukrainian side's assessment, this line may prove more promising than jet-powered "Shaheds". Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov has long predicted this shift. His arguments: such missiles are faster and more maneuverable, fly low, carry more explosives, do not require drone launch sites, and are assembled from Russian components (source).

Characteristics according to the GUR (source, source):

• Speed up to 800 km/h, range up to 1200 km. This is the range of the jet-powered "Geran", but at a speed close to that of a subsonic cruise missile.

• Flight altitude — from extremely low altitudes up to 6 km.

• Warhead of 50 or 100 kg, i.e. the equivalent of one or two "Shaheds". Warhead types — high-explosive fragmentation, penetrating and thermobaric.

• Length 3.5 m, wingspan 3 m, maximum takeoff weight 210 kg.

• Airframe made of carbon fiber and fiberglass, with some parts 3D-printed.

• Launched from a ground launcher with a solid-propellant booster.

• Sustainer engine — the R500 turbojet from the Russian company "Reynolds". The same engine is used on the S-71K "Kovyor" and the "Banderol".

[TECH] in the posts — electronics composition and component base. Guidance is built on a Chinese navigation system and a 16-element "Kometa" antenna. The CRPA (Controlled Reception Pattern Antenna — a jam-resistant antenna array for receiving satellite navigation) protects the GNSS (global navigation satellite systems) channel from jamming. The electronics were found to contain 35 American and 22 Chinese components (source). The onboard equipment is unified with the "Garpiya" drone (source).

The developer is JSC "NPO Molniya", known for producing KABs (guided aerial bombs), not the drone manufacturer of the same name. The missile has been in use since late summer. Public images of debris appeared only on 22 October.

The signal here is the family, not the individual item. The "Banderol", "Dan-T", "Dan-M", S-71M, "Geran-5" and UMPB-5 already operate in the same niche, and now the "Filin" has joined them. A Russian channel openly admits that visually distinguishing these items from one another is becoming impossible. For mobile fire teams and radars, this means growing uncertainty in target classification.

update Geran-5 — the "K5-K" modification with optical navigation

The same night brought a second novelty: the Ukrainian side recorded the "Geran-5 K5-K". It was first spotted about a month ago. According to Beskrestnov, the modification has optical navigation, as well as increased range, speed and flight altitude (source). Optical navigation reduces dependence on GNSS, and therefore the effectiveness of Ukrainian EW (electronic warfare) along the route.

update Garpiya — first recorded combat use of the jet-powered version

The Russian channel "Voenny Osvedomitel" identified in footage a jet-powered "Garpiya" produced by IEMZ "Kupol". It is an analogue of the "Geran-4", a copy of the Iranian Shahed-238. The telltale features are the characteristic air intake and the engine recessed into the fuselage (source). The jet-powered "Garpiya-A1" was first shown after the "Tsentr-2026" exercises, together with a launcher on a KamAZ-5350 chassis.

update Geran-4 Seeker — "Rubikon" claims strikes on two NASAMS launchers and a P-18 radar

The Russian "Rubikon" center reported on 21 October that it had struck two mobile NASAMS SAM systems (surface-to-air missile systems): near Shyroke in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and near Bashmachka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (source). A day earlier, according to the center's claim, a P-18 "Malakhit" radar was struck (source). There is no independent confirmation. If the claims are accurate, video-guided "Gerans" are functioning as a means of hunting Western air defense in the operational depth.

The 50th "Varyag" brigade showed a "Geran-4" striking a Mi-24 helicopter at Myrhorod airfield (source). Whether it was a real aircraft or a decoy is unclear. According to Ukrainian data, part of "Varyag" has been redeployed to the Lyman direction, where "Rubikon" previously operated (source).

A separate trend: strikes on the Dnipro crossings have resumed. A hit on the Cable-Stayed Bridge in Zaporizhzhia was recorded (source), shortly after hits on a bridge in Kyiv.

Night of 22 October: Ukrainian air defense effectiveness by target class

According to a Ukrainian summary, propeller-driven drones were shot down or suppressed at a rate of 94% (94 of 100), jet-powered ones at 79% (87 of 110). Of the ballistic missiles and "Zircons", none were intercepted: 0 of 21 (source). The 15-point gap between piston-engine and jet-powered drones is a quantitative measure of how much harder jet-powered "Gerans" are for Ukrainian air defense. The zero result against ballistic missiles is consistent with Zelensky's statement: the US is refusing interceptor missiles, citing the Middle East (source).

Ukrainian long-range strikes

Strike on the 75th arsenal in Serpukhov — a target within the Russian air defense repair system

On the night of 22 October, Ukrainian forces attacked the 75th arsenal of the GRAU (Main Missile and Artillery Directorate) in Serpukhov, approximately 380 km from the front line, with missiles and jet-powered drones (source). This facility repairs and stores the "Buk-M1", "Buk-M2", S-300V and radars. OSINT researchers (OSINT — open-source intelligence) identified it as early as 2024 as the only identified storage base for Russian anti-aircraft systems (source). The choice of target hits the restoration of the air defense fleet, not just the depots.

The Russian Ministry of Defence claimed 808 aircraft-type UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) shot down over 16 regions. According to Sobyanin, from 20:30 to 04:00, 630 UAVs flew toward the Moscow region, and 163 were neutralized on approach to Moscow (source).

Czech long-range UAV BRONCO 7000 — a Russian channel claims it is being used by the Ukrainian side

The Russian channel "Poleznaya Nagruzka" writes that the Ukrainian side is already using the BRONCO 7000 from the Czech company KBP International. Stated characteristics: range up to 1700 km, payload up to 80 kg, takeoff from landing gear or from a catapult, two configurations — reconnaissance and strike (source). The manufacturer itself does not mention deliveries to Ukraine. At the FUTURE FORCES FORUM in Prague, KBP showed two more "Shahed-like" drones: the piston-engine TARON and the jet-powered SABRE (source). The Czech Republic is building its own line of export-class long-range strike drones.

Satellite communications on the LBS (line of contact)

update Starlink/Starshield — speed restrictions lifted after Trump's call to Musk

According to the WSJ, on 22 October Trump personally called Musk and asked him to lift the restrictions on the military version of the system, Starshield. Shortly after the conversation, the connection became more stable (source). The Economist correspondent Oliver Carroll, citing commanders of Ukrainian drone units, writes that the restrictions "appear to have been lifted", but testing continues (source). Trump confirmed the restoration of access but declined to talk about the call (source).

Russian channels interpret the lifting differently. Rogozin claims that Ukrainian drones with Starlink flew during the period of restrictions as well (source). "Rybar" attributes the decline in Ukrainian attacks on the "Novorossiya" highway and Crimea primarily to a storm rather than to the slowdown of communications, and calls the 160 km/h restriction not critical (source).

The Russian channel UAVDEV expects that drivers on the R-280 "Novorossiya" highway, the land corridor to Crimea, will be the first to feel the consequences. In the US, the topic is moving into the political arena. 23 members of Congress called for allowing Ukraine to use Starlink for operations on Russian territory in order to strike missile launchers (source). Republican Brian Fitzpatrick is demanding public hearings on who imposed the restrictions (source).

ICEYE and Nokia sign a letter of intent with Ukraine's Ministry of Defence on sovereign satellite communications

Finland's ICEYE and Nokia have agreed with Ukraine's Ministry of Defence to work jointly on secure broadband communications in LEO (Low Earth Orbit). The principle is that the country owns and operates the satellites, the ground segment and the terminals (source). The partnership between the two companies itself was announced in early October. Now it has its first government customer. Against the backdrop of the episode with the Starshield slowdown, this is Kyiv's first formalised step towards ending dependence on a single private operator. For now this is a letter of intent, not a contract.

Counter-UAS

"Yastreb", ET lasers and the "Kashchey" interceptor — new items at the "Sfera Bezopasnosti" exhibition in Moscow

The Moscow exhibition showcased the "Yastreb" mobile system mounted on a pickup truck. It combines EW, radar, acoustic and optical detection (source). Its main weapon is nine high-speed missile drones at 350–400 km/h with ramming or a high-explosive fragmentation warhead of 0.8 or 1.5 kg. According to the developers, "Yastreb" also works against USVs (uncrewed surface vessels), has passed trials with the Navy and has already been on combat duty.

Next to it stood the "ET-3-360" and "ET-10-360" laser systems. They detect targets at 10 km and destroy drones at 1.2–1.7 km in 4–5 seconds. Also shown for the first time was the "Kashchey" interceptor with an automatic launch mechanism. Its speed is up to 320 km/h, it downs targets flying at up to 220 km/h, stays airborne for 8 minutes and is claimed to be autonomous under EW. For comparison: 220 km/h is insufficient against jet-powered "Shaheds" at 500–600 km/h, so this is a means against piston-engine targets and FPVs.

Russian "F-1" interceptor drone — first combat use

The Russian Ministry of Defence reported that an anti-aircraft missile brigade of the "Tsentr" group of forces on the Dnipropetrovsk axis used the "F-1" interceptor for the first time. According to the statement, the crews shot down more than 20 strike drones in four days (source). The crew chief notes the wing aerodynamics, the upgraded motor and controller, as well as stability in wind. The introduction of interceptors into regular anti-aircraft brigades, not only volunteer detachments, means the institutionalisation of this class in the Russian army.

update Sargan-3000 — a STING interceptor launched from a USV hit a jet-powered "Geran-4"

A video has appeared: a STING interceptor launched from the Ukrainian uncrewed Sargan 3000 platform in the Black Sea hit specifically a jet-powered "Geran-4" (source). Previously, interception of a piston-engine target from this platform had been recorded. The concept of "floating SAM systems" pushes the first line of defence out to sea and provides a time advantage against fast targets.

Finnish ItO 90M (Crotale NG) SAM systems handed over to Ukraine

The 1039th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment received ItO 90M systems on the wheeled Sisu XA-181 chassis. This is the Finnish version of the French Crotale NG (source). Detection — up to 20 km, engagement — up to 10 km in range and up to 6 km in altitude. They are used against drones and missiles (source). Finland had 20–21 such systems; the number handed over is unknown, but according to the report, it is not a matter of single vehicles.

European detectors and interceptors for Ukraine

• MyDefence (Denmark) — 2000 Wingman detectors delivered. They detect both the drones themselves and their controllers (source).

• SkyWiper Wall (Lithuania) — a new Lithuanian interceptor drone from this system has been tested in Ukraine under combat conditions (source).

• [upd] Quantum Systems — Germany will finance production in Ukraine of several tens of thousands of this company's interceptors as part of the 2026–2027 winter package (source).

Ukrainian "Arkan" interceptor operator school — up to 90 trainees per month, about 800 graduates

The Russian analytical centre KTsPN translated an interview with a manager of the "Come Back Alive" foundation. It shows how Ukraine is scaling up training for drone-based air defence (source). The school was launched in spring 2025 at a Ground Forces training centre. Throughput is up to 90 trainees per month; by August 2026 about 800 people had graduated. The foundation has invested about 15 million hryvnias.

Training covers two MOS (military occupational specialties): 502 — radar operators for detection and target designation, 219 — operators of copter and fixed-wing interceptors. The course lasts up to 40 days. According to the foundation, this is the lower limit below which quality drops, although the front demands shorter timelines. The bottleneck of Ukrainian drone air defence is now personnel and infrastructure, not hardware.

Russian "private air defence": regulation and transition to a zonal model

The Russian government, by Resolution No. 1331, tightened the registration of RES (radio-electronic suppression) equipment from 1 March 2027 (source). Applications are submitted only on paper to the territorial Roskomnadzor office and only by authorised organisations. The product must be in the register of Russian radio electronics, and the software in the register of Russian software. The goal is to remove grey "semi-Chinese" equipment from the market and eliminate unintentional interference with military radars.

At a round table at the "Sfera Bezopasnosti" exhibition, experts agreed on the need to move from protecting individual sites to a zonal and federal model. The main reason: a site owner is not on the list of entities entitled to stop a drone's flight (source). The Ministry of Digital Development has created an industry headquarters for protecting communications facilities from UAVs, with an emphasis on redundancy of nodes and trunk lines (source). RSPP head Shokhin stated that business is ready to finance air defence. Analysts point out that for the "last line" at industrial sites, cheap MANPADS such as "Iva" and autonomous interceptors are better suited than small-arms installations (source).

Communications, EW and SIGINT

update Walksnail Ascent GT PRO — breakdown of the Ukrainian airborne relay scheme for digital video

The Russian channel "FPV vyZOV" described how the Ukrainian side builds airborne relays based on the Ascent video system (source). The relay is suspended from a heavy "Baba-Yaga" hexacopter with Starlink or a mesh modem (mesh — a network in which nodes pass data through one another).

[TECH] the post contains the full scheme:

• The operator works from a PC: video comes via an RTSP stream (a streaming video protocol), commands are emulated from a standard FPV controller.

• The carrier has a Raspberry Pi 4 or 5 with 8 GB on board.

• A USB-UART converter (UART — a serial interface) emulating an ELRS receiver (ExpressLRS — an open drone control protocol) is plugged into it.

• The Ascent GT PRO receiver runs firmware 17.5.12 or newer; commands to the FPV are transmitted in "ELRS TT" mode.

• Optionally, an ELRS transmitter is added to duplicate the channel.
The author notes that once GT PRO MAX goes into mass use, "it will get really grim." Such relays, according to him, are increasingly used not only for air defence but also for strikes on ground targets. Russian developers have already announced an airborne ELINT (electronic intelligence) system for Ascent (source).

The 4.2–5.2 GHz band is almost uncovered by Russian EW — the Ukrainian side uses it for communications

Russian jamming equipment developer swatter_jammer writes that the Ukrainian side uses radio modems in the 4.2–5.2 GHz band, possibly for terminal guidance. Probably via gateways or relays in the Russian rear (source). In response, the developer is expanding his product to 3–7.5 GHz. This is further confirmation of the thesis that the frequency race has shifted from control channels to data and video channels.

Russian DataVision transmits drone video over a 25–70 Kbps link

The module, weighing about 50 g, adapts frame selection and compression to the channel bandwidth. When even 25 Kbps is not enough, an onboard neural network recognises objects and transmits only significant events to the operator (source). For comparison: analogue FPV requires megabits. This approach makes operation over narrow jam-resistant and satellite channels feasible.

The "Tuman" analogue video encryption board is being built into ground stations

The Russian channel "Inzhenerny Front" is assembling a unified GCS (ground control station) for various drones based on the "Spektr" receiver with built-in "Tuman" encryption made by "SVO-Radio" (source). The author notes that encryption prevents the enemy from determining where the drone is, and many detectors ignore such a signal (source).

Maritime platforms

UFORCE showcased its export MV family of USVs at NATO exercise REPMUS 2026

Ukrainian-British UFORCE fielded the MV7.2, MV7.3, MV11 and L11 boats in Portugal. This is a line separate from Magura: the design is Portuguese, the hulls and engines are different, and, according to the company, there are no critical Chinese components (source, source).

[TECH] in the post — payload configurations:

• The MV7.2 carries launch rails for AIM-9 Sidewinder; the AIM-9X and the Soviet R-73 have also been integrated.

• Another MV7.2 variant received a magazine container with FPV drones that launch one after another. Control is via radio link through an in-house onboard CRPA or via fiber optic.

• The MV7.3 received bays for heavy bomber drones of the Nemesis class, including SeaStrike, with a payload of 10–12 kg and a radius of 40–50 km.

• The MV11 in its air defense variant carries an American phased-array radar and interceptor containers; it can stay on station for up to seven days.

• The L11 is a logistics boat that takes a standard 20-foot container; the payload capacity of the 11-meter boats is up to 9 t.
Communications are redundant, including satellite, and there is an INS (inertial navigation system) in case of GNSS jamming. Control is synchronized with the Ukrainian Delta system. Black Sea experience is being packaged into an export product aimed at NATO.

Tactics

The Ukrainian side covers armor during breakthroughs with heavy multicopters and 15-inch FPVs

The Russian channel Aerokot analyzes a new Ukrainian practice. Heavy vehicles go on the breakthrough under cover of "Baba Yagas," "Vampires" and 15-inch FPVs, which knock out anti-tank teams and conduct reconnaissance (source). The author sees this as a makeshift analogue of an APS (active protection system). The proposed countermeasures are remote mining of the route by multicopters, EW, and numerical superiority in fast drones. Western analyst Jan Matveev confirms that drone-interceptor escort of armor has been used in Ukrainian counterattacks (source).

Ukrainian FPVs on the approaches to Crimea are delivered by carriers and weather balloons

Rogozin reports Ukrainian FPV activity on the Chonhar — Sokologornoye sector. According to him, strike multicopters are delivered by a mothership drone or a weather balloon when the wind is favorable (source). Targets are vehicles on the R-280 highway, including civilian ones, and machine-gun posts. A balloon as a cheap FPV carrier is a sign that the range of small drones is already extending beyond the limits of their batteries.

Underground warfare

Operation "Veles": Ukrainian forces traveled 15 km through gas pipelines into the rear on the Kupiansk axis

The 2nd Corps of the National Guard "Khartiia" announced an underground counteroffensive operation. Actions in the pipes were combined with a ground maneuver and drone strikes by the "Lava" regiment and the "Achilles" brigade (source). The result, according to Ukrainian data: more than 100 killed and more than 30 captured on the Russian side, and a Russian push into the rear of Kupiansk was thwarted. The corps commander openly acknowledges that Russian troops were the first to master this technique, and the Ukrainian side studied their experience.

A Russian channel showed a breach into the pipeline with Ukrainian soldiers and a group destroyed inside the pipe (source). According to the channel, nothing is known about any Ukrainian advances as a result of the operation. The logic is clear from the numbers: the drone kill zone is 10–15 km from the front, up to 30 km in depth. Underground space remains the only dimension the camera cannot see into (source). On the same topic, a translation of a lecture by Israeli fortification specialist Yehuda Kfir. He forecasts swarms of underground robots, "mole torpedoes" and full-fledged underground offensive maneuver (source).

Ground robots

Russian demining robot "Titan"

The developer reports that "Titan" has passed trials and will be sent to the SMO zone (source). Weight 2.3 t, payload capacity 1 t, electric motors for stealth, all-round fragmentation protection. With a mine plow it moves at up to 7 km/h with a 2 m clearing lane.

Priority 2. Military innovation

Combined Resolve 26-07: Ukrainian drone operators accounted for 70% of simulated losses of a US armored brigade

At exercises in Germany, Ukrainian UAV operators played the opposing force against the 3rd Armored Brigade of the US 1st Cavalry Division. In the first three days, drones accounted for 70% of simulated losses (source). After dispersal, camouflage, reduced radio traffic and active use of EW, the share fell to 30%. This is the third such episode. At Aurora 26 in Sweden, Ukrainians "hit" 28 of 32 vehicles; at Hedgehog in Estonia, ten operators disabled 17 British vehicles in half a day. Conclusion: Western armies adapt, but it takes them days they will not have in real combat.

The US Army is creating autonomous systems units under the new FASCOM command

New units are being introduced into Army corps: an artillery battery and a watercraft company in the 1st, an armored reconnaissance company in the 3rd, an engineer breaching company in the 5th, aerial reconnaissance and transport aviation companies in the 18th Airborne (source). They are transferred to FASCOM (Future and Autonomous Systems Command), reorganized from the advanced concepts command. The research base is Fort Rucker, where attack helicopter crews will practice controlling UAS (unmanned aircraft systems) sensors and joint strikes.

update YFQ-44A Fury — an F-22 pilot controlled the wingman as an airborne command post

At Edwards Air Force Base in October, an F-22A pilot transmitted tactical commands to the Fury over a secure link, while the wingman's onboard software executed maneuvers autonomously (source). Next under consideration is targeting from the AN/APG-77 radar and the AN/ALR-94 system for the wingman's employment of GBU-53/B bombs and AIM-120D-3 missiles.

update MQ-25A — the carrier-based tanker was controlled from an aircraft carrier in the Pacific while the drone itself was in the US

The US Navy for the first time controlled the MQ-25A Stingray from a shipboard center on USS Ronald Reagan. The aircraft was in the US at the time, with the link running through a low-Earth-orbit satellite network (source). The aircraft carrier is becoming a control node for a distributed unmanned group.

Skydio X10D integrated into the L3Harris tactical network

The US Army's standard small reconnaissance drone has received communications via Falcon IV radios with the jam-resistant Wraith waveform (source). The same radios can perform spectrum monitoring and detect hostile UAVs. The US is assembling a DJI replacement as a whole ecosystem: drone, communications, anti-jamming.

In brief — new carriers and interceptors in the West

• PERCH 2.0 (USA) — a Switchblade launch system for Abrams and Stryker. The crew reloads and attacks without leaving the vehicle (source).

• Starhammer (UK) — a Cambridge Aerospace interceptor missile against cruise missiles (source).

• Corsair (Saronic, USA) — the Greek Navy is testing the USV and has requested 30 units. Length 7 m, speed over 35 knots, range over 1000 miles, payload 454 kg (source).

• TEKEVER (Portugal) — the Bundeswehr has received a heavy transport drone for testing autonomous battlefield delivery (source).

• The US Army wants to procure up to 100 maritime drones for cargo in the Pacific, some of them uncrewed vessels for ten containers (source).

• TOLGA (MKE, Turkey) — a twin-barrel 20-mm mount firing 3200 rounds per minute, three times faster than comparable systems. This is a class of counter-small-drone weapons (source).

Military AI contracts over two weeks — money is going to C-UAS and command and control

A roundup by the channel "AI in Defense" shows the structure of demand (source). C-UAS (Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems):

• Raytheon — 729 million dollars for KuRFS radars and Coyote interceptors for the US, Qatar and Jordan.

• MARSS — about 490 million dollars for a national counter-UAV system for Kuwait on the NiDAR AI platform.
NGC2 command network (Next Generation Command and Control — the Army's next-generation command and control program):

• Air (formerly Govini) — 200 million dollars over five years.

• Shift5 and ASI — up to 99 million dollars each.
Other:

• Shield AI — 150 million dollars from the Navy for the X-BAT drone.

• Gecko Robotics — the ceiling of the contract for robotic ship inspection raised from 71 to 300 million dollars.
The Kuwaiti and Qatari orders are a direct result of Iranian strikes on bases in the region.

Strike assets and industrial cooperation around Ukraine

• Denmark is procuring air-launched JSM for the F-35A and ground-launched Anthem cruise missiles from Covenant. Anthem will be assembled in Leipzig from 2027. This is the first long-range strike capability in Denmark's history (source).

• Lockheed Martin is considering a "Ukrainian" version of the F-16 with an AESA radar (active electronically scanned array), conformal fuel tanks and European weapons; for F-16 upgrades the company is promoting the AN/APG-83 SABR radar (source).

• Denmark has issued a state guarantee on a loan of 750 million kroner (about 100 million euros) to the Danish subsidiary of Fire Point (source).

• Ukraine has simplified the construction of underground workshops for the defense industrial base (defense-industrial complex) and opened access to it for private developers (source).

• Ukraine will be able to procure weapons through NSPA (the NATO Support and Procurement Agency), and Ukrainian enterprises will be able to take part in alliance tenders (source).

• Turkey has accepted SOM-B1T and SOM-AT cruise missiles with the Turkish KTJ-3200 engine instead of the French TRI-40 (source).

Priority 3. Conflict around Ukraine: trends and signals

• Record Russian losses. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claims 2250 personnel for October 21 — an all-time record. Three of the five peak days fall in September–October 2026 (source). The Unmanned Systems Forces claimed 680 hit in a single day and 45 147 targets from October 1 to 21 (source). OSINT researcher Clément Molin links the increase to the attacks on Dobropillia, where, by his estimate, the reserves of four armies have been concentrated (source).

• Attrition hypothesis. Ukrainian analyst Roman Shrike, given recruitment of about 30 thousand people per month, allows for a reduction of the Russian force grouping, but himself cautions that such forecasts have failed to materialize more than once (source). According to the same author's calculations based on DeepState, the Russian advance in October is about 1 km² per day versus 8.6 km² in October 2025 (source).

• Sloviansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration. Russian channels describe the capture of Dobropillia and the next objective — Ocheretyne, for a partial encirclement of the agglomeration (source). The Ukrainian side has announced the mandatory evacuation of families with children from Sloviansk and Kramatorsk (source).

• Energy and logistics. Strikes on energy infrastructure: the 330 kV "Novokyivska" and "Zhytomyrska" substations (source). In parallel, there are regular Geran strikes on dry cargo ships en route to Odesa and Chornomorsk (source).

• Black Sea. NATO A330 MRTT tankers were again spotted over the western part of the sea; a P-8A operated the day before. This may indicate expanded patrolling after the attacks on vessels off Bulgaria and Romania (source).

• Hybrid front in Europe. The number of incidents attributed to Russian and Belarusian intelligence services has grown from approximately 454 at the end of August to about 700 — plus 250 in 50 days (source). Belousov in Minsk spoke of the need for "preemptive actions" (source).

• Diplomacy. Trump claims a deal with Moscow is close and that he is forgoing new sanctions. Zelensky allows for a freeze along the current line. Meanwhile, strikes by both sides are not decreasing.

Middle East — in brief. MeidasTouch published images of the aftermath of Iranian strikes on Prince Sultan Air Base, including an E-3G Sentry destroyed in March, and gabion anti-drone shelters without doors (source). Iran threatened, in the event of war, to strike cables, data centers and AI facilities (source). The IRGC claimed that three vessels were blown up by mines in the Strait of Hormuz and that tankers were struck during oil transshipment (source).

What to watch

1. Russia is building a mass class of cheap cruise missiles. The "Filin," with a range of 1200 km, composite construction, 3D printing and commonality with the "Garpiya," is already the seventh product in this niche. It is countered by the same means as jet-powered Gerans, and Ukraine is already short of them: 79% versus 94% against piston-engine targets.
2. Communications are the main political lever of the year. The lifting of Starshield restrictions with a single phone call shows the front's dependence on the decisions of a private company. The ICEYE and Nokia letter is Kyiv's first formal attempt to remove this dependence.
3. Interceptors are being institutionalized on both sides. In Russia, these are regular air defense brigades with the "F-1" and the exhibition "Yastreb" and "Kashchei"; in Ukraine, the "Arkan" school for 90 people per month and naval carriers. The bottleneck is shifting from drones to personnel and radars.
4. The frequency race has moved into data and video links. Ukrainian relays on Ascent, the 4.2–5.2 GHz band, Russian video encryption and frame transmission at 25 Kbit/s mean that software and architecture win, not jammer power.
5. The war is going underground. "Veles" and Russian operations in pipes are a direct consequence of the surface's transparency to drones. This is a new area for engineer troops and ground robotics.

What's new in UAVs and counter-UAV

• "Filin" (Russia) — cruise missile, 800 km/h, 1200 km, warhead 50–100 kg, R500 engine, 16-element "Kometa."

• [upd] "Geran-5 K5-K" (Russia) — optical navigation, greater range, speed and flight altitude.

• [upd] Jet-powered "Garpiya" (Russia, IEMZ Kupol) — first recorded combat use.

• [upd] "Geran-4 Seeker" (Russia) — hits on NASAMS and P-18 claimed.

• BRONCO 7000 (Czech Republic) — 1700 km, 80 kg; use by the Ukrainian side is claimed by a Russian channel.

• TARON and SABRE (Czech Republic, KBP) — piston-engine and jet-powered "Shahed-like" drones.

• "Yastreb" — pickup truck with nine missile-drones at 350–400 km/h.

• "ET-3-360" and "ET-10-360" — lasers, engagement at 1.2–1.7 km in 4–5 seconds.

• "Kashchei" — AI interceptor, 320 km/h, eight minutes of flight.

• "F-1" (Russia) — interceptor, more than 20 shot down in four days.

• [upd] Sargan-3000 and STING (Ukraine) — interception of a jet-powered Geran-4 with an unmanned surface vessel.

• ItO 90M (Finland, for Ukraine) — SAM system, engagement up to 10 km.

• Wingman (MyDefence) — 2000 detectors for Ukraine.

• SkyWiper Wall (Lithuania) — interceptor has passed combat testing.

• MV7.2, MV7.3, MV11, L11 (UFORCE) — unmanned surface vessels with AIM-9, FPV containers and an air defense module.

• [upd] Walksnail Ascent GT PRO — Ukrainian airborne relays on Raspberry Pi.

• DataVision (Russia) — 50 g module, video at 25 Kbit/s.

• "Titan" (Russia) — 2.3 t demining robot.

• "Slavik" (Vyriy Industries, Ukraine) — reconnaissance drone for 200 thousand hryvnias, system for 1.35 million, a thermal imaging version is in preparation (source).

• "Stryzh," "Pike," "Stepovyi viter-r" (UNWAVE, Ukraine) — new airframes on Brave1 Market (source).

• "KARA" (UkrSkyTechnology, Ukraine) — modifications of the mothership drone and the reconnaissance drone (source).

Military space and space-based data

update Kosmos-2612 — image of rendezvous with ICEYE-X36 from a Vantor satellite and acknowledgment of forced maneuvers

Vantor obtained an image in which the Russian inspector satellite Kosmos-2612 is slightly more than a kilometer from the ICEYE-X36 reconnaissance satellite. The minimum recorded distance is several hundred meters (source). According to LeoLabs, the approach was about 500 m; experts allow for a range of 150–650 m. The War Zone called this an unprecedented non-cooperative rendezvous operation.

A new practical fact: ICEYE-X36 had to maneuver to avoid a collision (source). This consumes fuel and shortens the spacecraft's service life. Even without hostile actions, the inspector causes damage simply by forcing the target to evade. ICEYE has been supplying Ukraine with intelligence since 2022, so the pressure is on one of Ukraine's key sources of SAR (synthetic aperture radar imaging).

US Air Force tested a cargo container for rocket logistics on the Starfall capsule

The AFRL laboratory sent cargo equipment into space and returned it on a SpaceX Starfall capsule during a commercial launch (source, source). The goal is delivery of cargo anywhere on the planet within hours. This is a step from concept to testing of "transport via space."

Politico: SpaceX's shift from Falcon 9 to Starship threatens military satellite launches

In 2025, SpaceX accounted for 85% of US launches. Many military satellites are not ready for Starship. According to anonymous sources, neither SpaceX nor its competitors submitted bids for three Space Force missions (source). Brigadier General Zarybnisky considers the situation manageable. Following the Starshield episode, this is yet another facet of the Pentagon's dependence on a single private company.

Communications. Ukraine and ICEYE with Nokia: letter of intent on sovereign LEO communications. Starshield: speed restrictions lifted (details in the section on communications along the line of contact).

Changes in data access:

• Commercial satellite-to-satellite imaging. Vantor (formerly Maxar) has shown that a commercial operator can document orbital rendezvous. Previously this was the preserve of military surveillance systems.

• Lag in public imagery. An image of the B-21 at Edwards AFB was taken in June but has only now appeared on Google. Based on it, the wingspan was estimated at about 46 m and the length at about 19 m, only 12% smaller than the B-2 (source). This is a clear measure of the lag of public services — about four months.

• AIS archives. The Telegraph analyzed 4.5 years of Global Fishing Watch AIS (Automatic Identification System for vessels) data. It found more than 500 episodes in which 17 Russian trawlers moved slowly along Britain's undersea cables (source). Open tracking archives have become a tool of infrastructure counterintelligence.

• Monitoring of protected sites. Western imagery shows that the Tsimbulovo drone port has received six new pads, fortifications near the launchers and anti-drone netting; work is to be completed by the end of December (source). Around Alabuga, 33 air defense positions on towers have been counted (source). Imagery also shows the restoration of Iran's Eagle 44 underground base (source).

• ADS-B. The Itamilradar project uses ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast) data to track NATO tankers over the Black Sea.

Under the radar

• Russian jam-resistant communications: 23 km under 1 W EW. The developers flew under jamming in the 360–940 MHz band with adaptive on-the-fly frequency hopping. For special tasks they abandoned MLRS in favor of their own protocol and are designing an automatic antenna tracker. The goal is 50–60 km under jamming (source).

• Fiber-optic remote ground control station: up to 60 km by calculation. Tested at 2 km. A single receiver unit covering 1000–8000 MHz, control at 300, 550, 750 MHz and 2.1–2.7 GHz, auto-scan in 1 MHz steps (source). Here the fiber protects the operators rather than the drone itself: the control station is moved far away from people.

• QuadRF — an open-source "radio camera." Four coherent antennas determine the position of a source 30 times per second using time difference of arrival (TDOA). The result is overlaid as a heat map on smartphone video. The code is open on GitHub (source). This is a cheap basis for visual direction-finding of controllers and drones.

• ZALA Lepestok-F — visual navigation without GNSS. At a civilian exhibition, ZALA showed a module with its own onboard computer, as well as the Lepestok-M with neural-network analysis in two bands and the IRRA system for change detection in flight (source). This is the same technology base that goes into military products.

• Commander of the GUR Revansh legion: the way out of the drone deadlock is means of moving infantry, not counter-drone. The interview draws an analogy: the machine gun was neutralized by tanks, not by an "anti-machine-gun." Strike UGVs (unmanned ground vehicles), in his assessment, will only come into their own on a maneuver front. A battalion needs its own middle-strike assets, because FPVs do not guarantee suppression of artillery (source).

• "Soldier as a carrier frame" patent. Inventor Randall Alley, who worked with DARPA on the Luke Arm bionic prosthesis, has filed an application for a system that secures loads directly to the limbs. Active actuators adjust the clamping force, and a weapon, armor or drone attaches to the arm as to a Picatinny rail. The application references TALOS and the HULC and XOS 2 exoskeletons (source).

• The Lastivka math doesn't add up. A Russian analysis of prices on Brave1 Market: a day airframe costs about 152.6 thousand hryvnias, a 50-airframe system 7.98 million, leaving exactly 352,500 hryvnias for the station with catapult. The claimed 60 minutes at 80 km/h gives 80 km, not "more than 100." A third version with a range of over 200 km is being prepared for codification (source).

And what about our Chinese comrades?

• Slat screens on the ZBL-09. At the Chinese-Pakistani Karakoram-2026 exercise, the PLA used ZBL-09 IFVs with anti-drone screens on the sides and turret. The vehicle delivered an assault group for urban combat (source). The exercise has entered the phase of mixed groups under unified command (source). These are the first widely shown "cope cages" on Chinese equipment — Ukraine's lessons are reaching the PLA.

• Unitree H2-X humanoid. The robot kicks in car doors, jumps from 4 m, lifts the front of a car and is capable of neutralizing a knife-wielding attacker (source).

• Export controls. Since October 19, China has restricted the export of a number of UAS models and dual-use components. Russian developers expect longer lead times and higher supply prices, but not stress for the industry (source). In parallel, Beijing is proposing to add 23 AI items to the list of export-restricted technologies: API access is permitted, while local deployment of a model requires a license (source).

• AEW and transport aviation. Xi'an corporation has built four Kongjing-3000 AEW&C (airborne early warning and control) aircraft (source). 23 new Y-20Bs undergoing testing are visible on the apron (source). On October 22, the second Y-15 prototype flew for the first time (source).

• Taiwan. Modernization of M60A3 tanks has run up against the CD-850 transmission: of 460 engines contracted, 275 have been delivered, and the new engine "tears up" the old transmission (source).

External analysis

• Gun-based air defense against drones is growing in caliber. Northrop Grumman will build a Raid Hunter prototype with 50 mm Bushmaster cannons and a Gryphon R1810 radar by the end of Q2 2027. Range is about 5 km, investment will exceed 100 million dollars (source). This confirms the picture from the Telegram sphere of artillery returning to air defense, as with the ZAK-30 Tsitadel. In the West the caliber is larger, with a bet on mass cheap rounds against jet-powered targets.

• Western developers explicitly cite Ukraine. Israeli startup Skapion is building an AI counter-swarm system on the premise that FPV interceptors cannot cope with jet-powered Gerans in raids with decoys (source). The external source matches Ukrainian statistics for the night of October 22: 79% against jet-powered targets versus 94% against piston-engined ones.

• EW as deception rather than jamming. Czech company ERA showed the EW-DEC system weighing up to 25 kg, which imitates radar signatures and masks real radars. Several synchronized systems create a false electromagnetic picture (source). Given the Geran-4 Seeker's hunting of NASAMS and P-18s, such decoys become a direct response.

• Germany is integrating loitering munitions into artillery. A 4th battery has been created in the 215th Artillery Battalion to work up such munitions together with the Lithuania Brigade (source). This complements the data on Combined Resolve: NATO is learning not only to defend against drones but is also incorporating them into its force structure.

• Turkish Kargu spotted in Yemen for the first time. The Houthis displayed captured STM Kargus used in Marib, with an antenna component from Irish company Taoglas (source). Captured loitering munitions spread technology faster than export contracts, as is also seen on the Ukrainian front.

• First drone evacuation: what hinders scaling up. Yan Matveev analyzes the evacuation of a soldier who had spent 491 days at a cut-off position, by a drone with a payload capacity of 100–150 kg under cover of an interceptor (source). His conclusion: without EW protection, nets and escort, such vehicles will become a priority target. This matches the assessment of the Russian channel Voenny Osvedomitel that StarGate evacuation drones will be used only situationally.

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