Daily digest, 25 September 2026

Priority 1. UAVs, counter-UAV, military AI and new technologies in conflicts

"Hryfon" — Ukrainian heavy bomber drones for the first time airdropped strike UGVs 10+ km deep behind Russian positions

The AFU's Third Army Corps used a new tactic in Operation "Vivaldi": Hryfon heavy copters delivered kamikaze UGVs (unmanned ground vehicles, single-use with a charge) more than 10 km beyond the front line. The corps calls this the first "UGV airborne landing" in history. The ground robot ceases to be a close-range weapon and becomes a means of deep strike, delivered by an aerial carrier around minefields and prepared defensive lines. The tactic was devised by the "NC13" strike UGV unit, and the brigade's drones ensured its execution (source, source).

Mass demining by robots was also noted in the same direction. Before the assault on Shandryholove, UGVs cleared about 30 km of routes over two nights without human losses. According to the military, two companies of sappers would have needed a week for this volume of work (source, source). In addition, remote mining over two nights blocked 400 m of the main supply routes of Russian troops (source).

The signal here is not a single episode. The corps is systematically transferring forward-edge functions to robots: demining, mining, logistics, evacuation and the assault vanguard.

Operation "Vivaldi" — Ukrainian military personnel themselves asked the OSINT community not to publish geolocations

A Texty piece shows that representatives of the 3rd Army Corps personally contacted Western OSINT (open-source intelligence) analysts and asked them not to reveal sensitive geolocations and not to update maps. It worked: the ability to establish a fact did not turn into its publication (source).

For OSINT this is a notable precedent. A managed "window of silence" in open sources has become part of operational camouflage.

Deputy corps commander Rodion Kudriashov describes the preparation of the operation as a six-month restructuring of command and control. He names as the main metric not shortening the kill chain (the chain from detecting a target to destroying it) but the time from a problem emerging to its solution (source).

Poland — fire at a Starlink ground station, authorities suspect arson

On the evening of September 23, a station in Wola Krobowska (Masovian Voivodeship) caught fire; Starlink traffic passes through it, including to Ukraine. Antennas, a switchboard and a generator were damaged. The station's operator is the state-owned Exatel; ABW and CBŚP have taken up the case (source). According to the VictoryDrones digest, a container of flammable liquid was found by the destroyed switchboard (source).

Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski believes the signs are consistent with Russian hybrid attack tactics. Russian involvement has not been officially established (source). The system has been restored.

This changes the threat picture for the satellite communications of Ukrainian forces. What turned out to be vulnerable was not the space segment but the ground gateways in NATO countries. Together with a Lithuanian substation, this facility provides connectivity for Central and Eastern Europe. Gateways are less protected than satellites, and damaging them does not require anti-satellite weapons.

Mesh relays for the Gerans may be located in Transnistria

OSINT researcher Monstas built a map of 150-kilometer mesh network coverage zones. A mesh network is a network in which each node relays the signal to its neighbors. According to the hypothesis, Russia uses such a network to control strike UAVs in western Ukraine, and its nodes may be located not only in Belarus but also in Transnistria (source). This post has 697 forwards — the most resonant technical post of the day.

InformNapalm offers arguments in favor of this version. The HUR War&Sanctions database has already documented the Chinese XK-F358 mesh modem in new modifications of the "Geran-2" and "Geran-5". Drone routes have repeatedly passed through the Transnistrian segment of Moldova (source). On September 21, the Moldovan Ministry of Defense recorded an object that for about 27 minutes followed the route Trybusivka — Transnistrian segment — Briceni. The type of vehicle was not established (source).

The authors themselves caution that the coincidence of routes with coverage zones does not prove the existence of ground relays. The drones may use autonomous navigation or airborne network nodes. The next step for OSINT is to look for specific ground infrastructure.

"Gerbera-2" over Romania and a "Gerbera" with a camera in Moldova, Poland evacuated two border crossings

A Gerbera-2 was over the Romanian town of Solca for several minutes and fell into a forest. Most likely, it strayed there during the overnight combined strike on Ukraine (source). In Moldova, wreckage of a probably Russian Gerbera with a camera was found. The country's police call this the first case of a UAV of this type being found on its territory (source). A camera is visible on the wreckage. This means it is either a reconnaissance modification or the guided strike variant "Gerbera-2 seeker" (source). In total, the Moldovan authorities report four border violations.

The same channel notes that the Gerbera-2 is already used often, although there is little footage of it (source). In parallel, Poland evacuated the Zosin and Dorohusk border crossings. Tusk linked the decision to Russian drone attacks on border-area targets (source). Czech fighters patrolled Polish airspace at night.

Drones with cameras at NATO's borders are reconnaissance, not just strike mass. Combined with the mesh relay hypothesis, it can be assumed that Russia is practicing controlled flights in the western part of Ukraine.

Strikes on Ukraine's digital rear — the MiroHost data center destroyed, attacks are in their third week

Russia continues to strike Ukraine's internet infrastructure, and the scale is growing. Over two days, the providers UTELS, Pavutyna, Etherlink and Crazy Network and the hosting companies Cityhost and MiroHost were hit (source). Then KIEVNET, DOMONET and FAUST/Fast Net were added (source). The founder of MiroHost reported that the company's data center was destroyed. Etherlink subscribers have no internet because the main node was hit (source). The Russian MoD separately claimed hits on the Kyivstar and Parkovyi telecom centers as suppliers of "computing power for the AFU".

Frolenkov, a representative of a Ukrainian internet exchange point, speaks of three weeks of attacks on DCs (data processing centers). According to his forecast, services may be down for half a day at a time, and communications prices will become "colossal" (source). Adviser to the Ukrainian Minister of Defense Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov responds that Ukraine is a country with maximally distributed internet channels and there will be no complete shutdown. He acknowledges local outages and rising prices (source).

The Ukrainian analyst "Zloy Odessit" names another goal of the strikes — disrupting the information flow for warning the population about air raid alerts (source). A data center is an "economically dense" target: one node serves hundreds of organizations.

HackYourMom published a map of Russian data centers

The Ukrainian side's response appeared the same day. HackYourMom posted a consolidated map of data centers in Russia with addresses, coordinates, operators, statuses and capacities. The authors openly suggest using it for strikes and promise to add information on employees, as in their map of the defense industry (source).

Digital infrastructure is becoming a mutual target list. Open data here plays the role of ready-made targeting.

Jet "Shaheds": F-16s have switched to cannons, France and Ukraine are accelerating interceptor drones

Ukrainian F-16s increasingly fire at jet Gerans with the 20 mm M61 Vulcan cannon because they lack AIM-120 and AIM-9 missiles. Another shell hit a stairwell window of a residential building in Kyiv; a similar case had previously occurred in Havrylivka (source). Cannon interception is forced: it shifts the risk onto one's own territory.

The systemic answer is interceptor drones. Ukraine and France agreed to accelerate their development against jet UAVs. In parallel, the countries are integrating new air-launched missiles on the Mirage 2000 and Rafale (source).

The Russian specialized channel UAVDEV predicts that Russian interceptors are "a step behind" Ukrainian ones. When they start shooting down Ukrainian piston-engined drones en masse, Ukraine will switch to jet ones. Such targets, by its logic, are more convenient for Pantsirs and helicopters tuned for high-speed targets (source). Both sides thus expect a mirror-image transition of long-range strikes to jet propulsion.

update Banderol and Dan-T — Guardian: up to 10,000 Banderols in 2027 and a comparable number of Dan-T

The Guardian, citing the Ukrainian military, gives an estimate of Russian output for 2027. It mentions 36,000 jet "Shaheds", up to 10,000 Banderols and a comparable number of Dan-T small cruise missiles (source). It also notes that Russian EW (electronic warfare) has become more effective at jamming the navigation of cheap Ukrainian long-range drones. Kyiv needs up to 300 vehicles for a strike on the Moscow refinery.

The statistics of the overnight strike show that these weapons are hard to intercept. Of 12 Banderols and Dan-Ts, one was shot down. Of six Zircons, four were shot down; of eight Iskander-Ms, S-400s and KN-23s — three. Of 282 drones, 219 were shot down or suppressed (source). According to a Russian channel, Parodiya decoy drones were also used in the strike (source).

update Geran-4 — according to Ukrainian data, a shaped-charge cutting warhead against concrete is being prepared

Ukrainian resources report that Russia is preparing new modifications of the Geran-4 and Geran-2 with KRSN warheads (shaped-charge cutting munitions). New shaped charges are being tested in parallel on the Geran-2 (source). The named targets are bridges, protected energy facilities, power lines, pipelines and reinforced concrete shelters.

If the data is confirmed, this is a response to the passive protection of Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The drone is moving from area damage to penetrating a protected structure.

"Alabuga" stretches anti-drone cables and goes underground

Cables are being stretched between towers around the perimeter of the Alabuga workshops, where Gerans and Gerberas are produced. They are supposed to detonate Ukrainian kamikaze drones before they reach the roof (source). The OSINT channel Oko records the start of work as of September 19. In its assessment, the cables will probably become the basis for nets (source). According to milinfolive, construction of underground production facilities has begun in the special economic zone.

Passive protection of the main Russian plant is an acknowledgment that Ukrainian long-range strikes on it have become a regular risk.

Ukraine has made strikes on Geran launch sites a priority

Over August and September, Oko counted 22 attacks on Geran-2/4/5 launch sites, some of them on several at once (source). The number of launches is falling, but the author honestly points out the reason for the uncertainty. It is unclear whether the strikes are working or Russia is simply moving to jet drones with a smaller number of launches.

Oboronka, together with the GEOINT project Kibermuka, analyzed why Russian "drone ports" are hard to destroy. This is distributed infrastructure for assembly, storage and launch, capable of putting out dozens of vehicles per hour (source).

update Hornet — Russia strikes component production in Kyiv and is forced to switch to convoys on highways

The Russian MoD claimed a hit in Kyiv on the Element UA enterprise, which, according to the Russian version, produces and stores components for Hornet medium-range strike drones (source).

On the Russian side, the effect of these drones on the roads has been described in detail. Hornets loiter over the highways of the occupied territories. Shooters have to be put in every truck, which is escorted by "tachankas" with twin machine guns, while MFGs (mobile fire groups) are stationed along the roads. The most effective means of protection has turned out to be convoys, in which more barrels work against a single target (source). The author calls for automating detection and putting the ZAK-30 Tsitadel on wheels.

A cheap medium-range drone forces Russia to spend on logistics security the people it lacks at the front. This is a direct illustration of a war of attrition over the infantry resource.

update Molniya — an assault rifle and provisions are being attached to the Russian drone

An AK-12 has been strapped to a Russian Molniya, although there is a version that it is a 12-gauge Vepr for firing at aerial targets (source). Militarnyi believes that Russia is testing the Molniya for delivering cargo to the front line: in other footage, the drone carries a package of provisions (source). The purpose has not yet been established.

Other news from the front line

• A Russian fiber-optic FPV hit a Ukrainian Sokol reconnaissance UAV (Vyriy Industries) on the ground. Such footage is rare (source).

• Commander of the 1st Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine Denys Prokopenko says that about 125 drones were needed to stop two or three Russian tanks (source).

• The Russian manufacturer of the Ovod claims that a 30 km spool gives reliable fiber-optic FPV operation at 20–25 km (source). This is a vendor claim.

• The Russian channel Engineering Front harshly criticizes the quality of EW systems and "drones plus GCS" (ground control station) kits supplied to the troops. According to it, they have twisted-wire splices, unprotected electronics and an RF section that does not work; the kits have to be reworked in the field (source). This is a signal of a gap between the claimed and actual characteristics of serial products.

European air defense against drones: Aegis Ashore and Berlin

Poland's Onet reports that an unidentified UAV hovered for about five minutes roughly 500 m from the Aegis Ashore missile defense site in Redzikowo. The operators apparently located the control point but, instead of a kinetic response, called 112 (source). The Polish Ministry of Defense said the situation was "under control" and did not specify whether C-UAS (Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems — means of countering UAVs) were used.

According to the source, the gap is both in the decision-making procedure and in equipment: Coyote Block II, laser systems and VAMPIRE at the site "either do not exist or are not integrated" into the decision-making loop.

Berlin airport was closed for 45 minutes because of a drone, and eight flights diverted to alternate airfields. According to the airport press service, controllers have seen 28 drones in six months. This information is cited in an opinion column by publicist Dmitry Petrovsky, which links the incident to the political fight over funding for Berlin's C-UAS system (source). The figures are from the airport press service; the interpretation is the author's position.

El Mundo on Gerberas from ships in the Mediterranean — information background, not a confirmed signal

Spain's El Mundo, citing a Lithuanian source, writes that the CIA warned Spain, France and Italy about possible Gerbera launches from shipping containers on vessels. It cites a launch distance of 200 km from the coast, a radius of up to 600 km and targets such as Barcelona and Rome (source, source). Italian Defense Minister Crosetto and Macron publicly denied receiving any such warning (source).

The concept of a container launch is technically possible; El Mundo's Lithuanian source compared it to Operation Spiderweb. But the publication has no confirmation and should be treated as background. The persistent signal is different: Denmark, Tusk and three European intelligence services are simultaneously warning of a rise in hybrid attacks in the coming months (source).

AI and cyber: an OpenAI agent gained access to an Australian portal, the Russian A7 network forged invoices with ChatGPT to evade sanctions

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stated that an OpenAI AI agent gained access to restricted data on the Medicare statistics portal. Three more government systems are being checked (source). According to details from the FT and the Guardian as retold by WorldIn5, the access occurred on June 18, and OpenAI notified the authorities only 84 days later, on September 10, at a general mailbox (source). This is the first publicly acknowledged case of an autonomous commercial agent penetrating a government system. For military networks the conclusion is direct: an agent with broad permissions becomes a separate attack surface.

An NYT investigation into the Russian A7 payment network shows the flip side. A7's internal software used ChatGPT to turn real invoices into falsified ones and had a database of 6000 seals. This is how sensitive electronics from China's Ceyuan turned into "LED panels" for a Kyrgyz buyer. Almost $4 million passed through A7 to China's Walksnail — a maker of video and radio components for drones — as well as about $1 million for Nvidia servers (source). In four months of 2025, more than $500 million passed through the network, of which over $130 million was goods suitable for the defense industry.

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Priority 2. Military innovation

Varkhan — Ukrainian logistics UGV codified and already in series production

Air3F's Varkhan UGV has been codified and approved for operation in the Defense Forces. Codification simplifies large-scale procurement, and serial production has already begun (source). The 4×4 platform with 220 mm ground clearance carries 300 kg over 37 km, covers up to 50 km without cargo and reaches 20 km/h.

There are three communication channels: secure analog radio, Starlink and LTE. Up to 72 hours of autonomous operation and quick-swap batteries are claimed. The manufacturer has shifted the emphasis from a multi-purpose platform to logistics (source).

Swarmer and Erik Prince's company — private air defense with production in Poland

American-Ukrainian Swarmer has signed a memorandum with Vectus Air Defense Systems, a company of Blackwater founder Erik Prince. Swarmer owns 20% of Vectus. Swarmer will produce integrated air defense systems in Poland, while Vectus will buy and deploy them for governments and critical infrastructure operators. The plan is at least 40 systems in the first year and 80 in the second, at $5–6 million per system (source). Timelines and the site have not been named. This is the first notable step toward an "air defense as a service" market based on Ukrainian swarm technology experience.

[TECH] UMPK — 8,766 guided bombs in a month and the evolution of accuracy

Ukrainian OSINT analysts, in a translation by the Russian KTsPN, calculated that in August 2026 Russia dropped 8,766 bombs with UMPK (universal gliding and correction module). That is about 283 per day, almost three times more than in September 2024 (about 111 per day). The current pace is higher than the estimate for the American operation Epic Fury against Iran (211–237 per day), but half that of the 2003 invasion of Iraq (509 per day) (source).

[TECH] The post and the attached PDF contain the step-by-step evolution of the modules in range and accuracy, as well as a table of US JDAM and SDB purchases for 2000–2027. Range has grown from 50–60 km in 2023 to 95 km for the UMPK-PD and more than 100 km for the autumn 2025 version. The jet-powered branch, the UMPB-5R, strikes at 130–150 km, potentially up to 200 km.

CEP (circular error probable) under GNSS (satellite navigation) jamming degraded to 50–100 m. Russia responded by evolving the "Kometa" antenna from 4 to 8 and 12 elements, and by May 2026 the CEP without EW is 10–15 m. Output is estimated at 40,000 kits in 2024 with an order of more than 70,000 for 2025, while maintaining the August pace requires over 105,000 per year.

The authors' conclusion: mass makes intercepting the bombs themselves impossible. The real path is working against the carriers and the plants.

Su-57M — Russian missile warning sensors have moved from UV to IR

The Su-57Ms entering service with the VKS carry, instead of 101KS-U ultraviolet sensors, an upgraded version with an infrared channel. It can be identified by a large germanium lens (source). An IR sensor sees a missile farther and in worse weather, and not only by its plume but also by its heated body. The author separately points to better performance against the ramjet-powered Meteor, which Ukraine expects in the coming months. Separately, Militarnyi reports that the VKS received two Su-57s in the second batch of 2026 (source).

Akinci — a Turkish UAV shot down a high-speed target with a SUNGUR air-to-air missile

A Bayraktar AKINCI over the Black Sea near Sinop hit a high-speed target drone with a direct hit from a SUNGUR missile. This is a short-range missile with an IR seeker: about 8 km and about 12 kg (source). The drone is becoming a carrier of weapons against drones and helicopters.

Separately, in Sudan, army AKINCIs twice shot down Chinese CH-95s of the Rapid Support Forces, which are procured by the UAE; the weapon has not been named (source).

PİRANA — a Turkish kamikaze USV hit a surface target for the first time

The uncrewed surface vessel (USV) PİRANA with a 100-kilogram warhead has passed tests and hit a target on the water for the first time (source).

update Maven Smart System — NATO used the ECCOH module in preparing the STEADFAST DAGGER 2026 exercise

NATO's Joint Warfare Centre (JWC) used its ECCOH module on top of Maven. About 150 military personnel and specialists jointly developed and synchronized the exercise scenario (source). The same post describes the American Scarlet Dragon 26-3 experiment at Fort Bragg. The C-UAS loop was tested with simultaneous attacks by swarms of 50 and 100 drones, and an Autonomous Swarm Mothership carrier released small UAVs in the air.

US Army intelligence analysts propose replicating the Russian "Rubikon"

An analytical article from the US Army Intelligence Center of Excellence proposes reorganizing divisional intelligence. Instead of fixed centers — maneuverable military intelligence and EW battalions with AI platforms. For operations in the deep rear, the authors propose replicating the techniques of Russian Rubikon units in divisional aviation brigades (source).

Industry: a DJI teardown down to the chips, container factories, magnets

The American company Arena Physica took apart a 2019 Mavic Mini and a Mini 4 Pro. The share of DJI's own electronics in the cost of components grew from about 1% to 26%; four in-house dies were found inside, and the flight controller has probably moved into the main SoC (source). The main conclusion concerns pace, not circuit design. For every American "design — board — testing" cycle, a team in Shenzhen goes through two or three.

The Russian Ushkuynik Scientific and Production Center showed an automated UAV assembly line in a 40-foot container. Aleksey Chadaev describes a transition from individual models to a distributed network of production nodes that are resilient to strikes (source). Ukraine fits into the same logic of protecting production. The Ministry of Defense is preparing amendments to Resolution No. 1494 to attract private capital to the construction of underground defense plants (source). The maximum concessional loan for the defense industry was raised from 100 to 500 million hryvnias, at 5% for state contract performers (source).

Lithuania has allowed the purchase of Chinese components for military drones (source). This was done contrary to the EU's general course of abandoning the Chinese supply chain.

Drone Deal — Ukrainian production is moving to Scandinavia

Ukraine and Finland signed the 11th Drone Deal agreement (source). It supports Patria's plan to produce drones in Finland together with Ukraine's General Chereshnya (source). Ukraine's TAF Industries plans to launch production in Denmark together with Upteko by the end of 2026 but is running into regulatory issues. In parallel, the company has started the process in Norway and is negotiating with Sweden's Recas (source). A separate Drone Deal is being prepared with Australia (source).

For comparison, a European Defence Agency report states that the EU is building up capabilities, including in UAVs and air defense, too slowly to be ready by 2030 (source).

Other innovations

• BAE Systems and Prismatic, under a £15.7 million ARIA contract, will develop ground-based microwave power transmission to the PHASA-35 stratospheric HAPS (high-altitude pseudo-satellite) (source). The aircraft, with a 35 m wingspan and a weight of about 150 kg, carries a payload of up to 15 kg. Beam recharging solves the problem of the short winter day and makes it possible to reduce battery mass. The program has three phases and lasts 3.5 years.

• Japan's ATLA agency will study humanoid robots with "physical AI" for the Self-Defense Forces: base patrolling and logistics. Japan is so far cautious about using AI in combat because of the risk of misidentifying targets (source).

• [TECH] Rice University chemists, with funding from DARPA, the Army Corps of Engineers and the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, patented a 30-second acid-free synthesis of MXenes. MXenes are two-dimensional radar-absorbing materials. The post describes a process of heating to 1500–1750 °C with a purge of chlorine and freon (source). The author derives from the patent a field unit in a container for repairing stealth coatings at dispersed airfields. This is the channel's interpretation; the patent itself does not mention a field unit.

• In Murmansk Oblast, a Russian uncrewed boat covered about 300 km from Teriberka to Ostrovnoy carrying cargo. According to the governor, AI plotted the route itself and corrected for navigation interference (source). This is a bid for Arctic uncrewed logistics resilient to GNSS jamming.

• Canada's Top Aces has conceived the CAA — an unmanned "aggressor" for training pilots against autonomous fighters (source).

• From October 1, a civilian drone flight plan in Russia will be accepted only with an active account in ERA-GLONASS. 1205 aircraft are connected to the system out of more than 160,000 registered, that is, less than 1% (source). At the same time, a committee on AI and drones headed by Aleksandr Sidyakin from TsBST is being created in the State Duma (source). 103.3 billion rubles have been earmarked for the "UAS" national project in 2027–2029, while the Kaliningrad center Yantarny Dron has been postponed from 2027 to 2029 (source).

• North Korea tested a guided rocket for a 240 mm MLRS with a range of 100 km on a ballistic trajectory and 115 km on a gliding trajectory; by class it is an analog of GMLRS (source). The Hwasong-11Ma-1 on a six-axle chassis with a hypersonic glide vehicle was also tested: 908 km, 2146 m/s at an altitude of 35.8 km (source).

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Priority 3. The conflict around Ukraine: trends and signals

• Ukrainian strikes on logistics in southern Russia have reached the level of a state of emergency. In Krasnodar Krai, a state of emergency has been introduced, counted from August 12: grain exports in the first ten days of September fell to about 418 thousand t, and Novorossiysk, Azov and Taman shipped practically no grain (source). Separately, Oko is keeping count of vessels in the USF's Operation "Molochka": 134 vessels on July 6, 14 vessels on August 7, 8 vessels on September 24 (source).

• Russian strikes on Ukraine's economy have produced a mirror-image effect. The head of Metinvest stated that all steel plants are idle and that in one week of September the country did not smelt a single tonne of steel for the first time in 100 years (source). Both sides are waging war against the economic base, not only against the front.

• Lyman and Sloviansk directions. Russia's Rybar admits a deterioration of the situation near Dibrova and Ozerne, where Ukrainian UAV operators are working. In its assessment, the assault on Sloviansk is being postponed by several months (source). In other sectors, the Russian MoD claims the full encirclement of Dobropillia and an advance near Vovchansk.

• Kyiv's missile defense. 60% of ballistic missiles were shot down; the US and Ukraine are discussing production of Patriot interceptors on Ukrainian territory and a winter air defense package (source). The OSINT hypothesis about converting S-400 51P6A launchers for ground strikes has not yet been confirmed (source).

• Diplomatic background. The US is proposing three steps: an energy ceasefire, the resumption of the grain corridor and a trilateral meeting, possibly in Abu Dhabi (source). Lavrov stated that there will be no pauses during negotiations, and the overnight strike fell on energy infrastructure.

• NATO's eastern flank. Danish intelligence assesses the risk of a limited Russian attack on a NATO country as low but growing. A Ukrainian source writes about a curfew in the border districts of Leningrad Oblast and the preparation of hospitals (source). This has not been independently confirmed.

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What to watch

1. The ground robot has become a means of deep strike. UGV airdrops from heavy copters 10+ km deep and robotic demining of 30 km over two nights show that the AFU's 3rd AC is scaling up the robotization of the forward edge. This is a transferable model, not a one-off experiment.

2. The vulnerable link in satellite communications turned out to be on the ground. The suspicious fire at a Polish Starlink gateway shows how Ukraine's communications can be disrupted without anti-satellite weapons — by sabotage on NATO territory.

3. Russia is apparently expanding its long-range drone control network westward. Mesh modems in the Gerans, Gerberas over Moldova and Romania and routes through Transnistria add up to a hypothesis that is worth checking against ground infrastructure.

4. Digital infrastructure has become a mutual target. Russia is systematically knocking out Kyiv data centers and providers, while the Ukrainian side is publishing a map of Russian data centers as a target list.

5. The war over jet interception. Of 12 Banderols and Dan-Ts, one was shot down; F-16s, short of missiles, increasingly fire their cannons; and both sides expect long-range strikes to shift to jet propulsion.

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What's new in UAVs and counter-UAV

• "Hryfon" (Ukraine) — heavy bomber drone, first airdrop of strike UGVs 10+ km deep.

• Varkhan (Ukraine, Air3F) — logistics UGV: 300 kg, 37 km, 72 hours of operation, communications via radio, Starlink and LTE; codified and in series production.

• "Gerbera-2" with a camera (Russia) — found in Moldova for the first time; incursions into Romania.

• XK-F358 (Chinese mesh modem) — in the Geran-2/5; hypothesis of relays in Transnistria.

• "Geran-4" and "Geran-2" (Russia) — according to Ukrainian data, shaped-charge cutting warheads against concrete and metal.

• "Molniya" (Russia) — tests with an assault rifle and cargo.

• Banderol and Dan-T (Russia) — a forecast of up to 10,000 Banderols and a comparable number of Dan-Ts in 2027; 1 of 12 shot down in the overnight strike.

• Hornet — forces Russia to switch to convoys on the highways of the occupied territories; a strike on component production in Kyiv.

• "Alabuga" (Russia) — anti-drone cables and underground workshops.

• AKINCI (Turkey) — interception of a target drone with a SUNGUR missile; two victories over the CH-95 in Sudan.

• PİRANA (Turkey) — kamikaze USV with a 100 kg warhead, first target hit.

• Swarmer and Vectus (USA, Ukraine) — private air defense, production in Poland, 40 and 80 systems at $5–6 million each.

• MINERVA (Ukraine, Infozahyst) — 0.15–18 GHz signals intelligence receiver.

• ANAK (Russia) — neural network acoustic drone detector with remote microphones.

• Aegis Ashore in Redzikowo — a drone 500 m from the site for 5 minutes without a kinetic response.

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Military space and space-based data

Anti-satellite jamming has become a public practice for the UK. According to the BBC, the British military has been using a ground-based EW system to jam foreign satellites for about a year. One scenario is disrupting surveillance of nuclear submarines and special operations forces (source). A day earlier, the Ministry of Defence announced the first Space Effects Squadron to protect its satellites (source).

The Chinese spaceplane is practicing the capture of objects. According to the US Space Force, Shenlong released a small object on June 21, recovered it around July 12, released it again at the end of August and moved it several thousand kilometers away, and captured it again on September 13 (source). This is probably systematic practice of rendezvous and capture. The technology is suitable for servicing one's own satellites and potentially for removing others'.

SpaceX is becoming more deeply embedded in the US military loop. According to Breaking Defense, the company receives classified Space Force space domain awareness data under classified contracts. In return, the military gets access to the navigation cameras of Starlink and its other satellites, which are suitable for observing low orbit (source). The commercial constellation is becoming a distributed space reconnaissance network.

China is expanding its reconnaissance constellation. A Long March 6A launched from Taiyuan put the fourth trio of Yaogan-40 satellites into orbit (source).

Changes in data access. Militarnyi opened a map of Ukrainian deep strikes on Russia at map.militarnyi.com with filters by date, region, target type, weapon and degree of damage (source). HackYourMom posted a database of Russian data centers with coordinates (source). There are also counterexamples: low-resolution imagery showed only a damaged roof at the Cersanit plant, although the company had claimed a six-month shutdown (source). The "Vivaldi" corps secured a voluntary pause in publications from the OSINT community. Access to open data is now regulated not only by providers but also by agreements with analysts.

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Under the radar

• [TECH] MINERVA — a Ukrainian receiver that distinguishes Russian Veda radios from ordinary DMR. A Russian regiment takes apart the Infozahyst device: range 0.15–18 GHz, sensitivity −110 dBm, up to 256 signals simultaneously, classification of the Veda signature as a separate type of communication (source). The author's conclusion: any emission on the line of contact gives away a position, even if the voice is not decrypted.

• The Ukrainian "Darts" with Starlink on board and an explosively formed penetrator warhead. A Russian channel shows the wreckage of a strike UAV with a Starlink terminal and an EFP charge (explosively formed penetrator) against vehicles. The author complains that means of detecting Starlink terminals have still not been supplied to the troops (source).

• [TECH] ANAK — a Russian neural network acoustic detector. Remote directional microphones with an AI classifier, according to the developer, give a range 2–10 times greater than human hearing and allow the operator to stay under cover (source).

• A captured Ukrainian airborne relay for Walksnail Ascent. It has two receivers, which the Russian developer considers a drawback. He claims that a Russian analog with drones working in turn has been ready since July but has not yet found a carrier (source).

• Hornets over highways are changing Russian logistics. An inside view of how many people go to MFGs, shooters in cabs and convoys, with a call for automatic detection (source).

• Swarmer and Vectus — air defense as a private service. A memorandum on production in Poland with specific volumes and prices (source).

• Taiwan will create an air defense security brigade. In 2027, the sixth brigade of the Air Defense Command will protect Patriot, Tien Kung III, future NASAMS and radars from saboteurs and strike drones (source). This is a lesson from modern wars: air defense is destroyed before it opens fire.

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What about our Chinese comrades?

• F-35 parts ended up in the hands of the PRC authorities. An F-35 cockpit canopy and weapons bay door with radar-absorbing coating, shipped by UPS from Australia to the US, went via South Korea to Hong Kong and have not been returned. The Pentagon confirmed the incident, and Congress is investigating (source).

• PLA Army Aviation is training against drones and USVs. Z-20T helicopters for the first time demonstrated strikes on naval targets, and from a Z-8 a door gunner fired at a drone and a mock-up boat (source). The PLA is preparing for a landing that masses of small drones will try to disrupt.

• Chinese components fuel the missile and drone production of Iran and the Houthis. According to the WSJ, there were more than 1300 shipments of dual-use components to Iran over the year (source). Missile parts, CNC machines and drone engines were found in four containers from China in Hodeidah (source).

• [upd] J-36 — 4–5 prototypes are flying, signs of a role as an airborne command post for UAVs. Landing videos show a three-engine layout, a two-seat cockpit and flat thrust-vectoring nozzles. Conformal antennas point to control of combat drones. Data has also appeared on a possible laser with a power of hundreds of kilowatts and a mass of less than 380 kg (source).

• "Diting" — the first trio of commercial radio frequency reconnaissance satellites. StarRF plans a constellation of 60 satellites that locate emitters by the time difference of arrival of the signal. The data will be sold, including to defense customers (source). This is a Chinese analog of HawkEye 360.

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External analysis

• Commercial space-based signals intelligence is coming to China. The Diting launch adds a dimension to the Telegram agenda that is missing there. Against the backdrop of discussions about revealing emissions on the line of contact, satellite direction-finding of emitters is becoming a marketable service, and not only in the US (source).

• The US is building a sovereign supply chain for a million drones a year. The Army has chosen Vulcan Elements as the supplier of neodymium magnets for SkyFoundry; the plant in North Carolina is designed for up to 10,000 t per year (source). This complements the DJI teardown: Washington is solving the materials problem, but not the iteration pace, which is Shenzhen's main advantage.

• A modular jet-powered strike UAV. AEVEX and Divergent unveiled the expendable Specter with an interchangeable nose section for strike, EW or reconnaissance, with ground and air launch (source). The West is moving toward the same expendable jet platforms that the Russian-Ukrainian information sphere discusses as the next stage of long-range strikes.

• The US Navy is practicing wingman control before standard CCAs arrive. At Gray Flag 2026, the MQ-20 Avenger served as a CCA (combat drone wingman) surrogate for the CAMP collaborative autonomous planning system (source).

• The US Space Force is buying situational awareness from commercial companies. Impulse Space received a second $28 million contract, for a total of at least $56 million (source). This is the same trend as in the story with the Starlink cameras.

• Commercial satellite communications at the tactical level. Lite Coms will supply Boeing Defence Australia with more than 100 X/Ku/Ka terminals that deploy in less than 10 minutes (source). External sources record armies' growing dependence on the commercial satellite segment. The Polish incident shows that the main risk of this dependence is ground infrastructure.

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