Daily digest, 31 July 2026

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🎯 What to watch

1. Russia's massive strike on the night of July 30 was the most "missile-heavy" of the month — 74 missiles + 284 UAVs. For the first time in ~8 months, North Korean KN-23s were used (against Kryvyi Rih, 6 dead including children). A Kh-101 cruise missile flew ~90–95 km deep into Poland — F-16s were scrambled but did not intercept it. This is already the second test of NATO's reaction in six months, following the drone experiments via Belarus.

2. The FT revealed the mechanics of the strikes on Russian refineries: the US and France gave Ukraine intelligence that made it possible to build a map of the Russian energy system and identify critical, hard-to-replace nodes. According to Ukrainian estimates, ~30% of actual and ~45% of nominal oil refining capacity has been knocked out; only 8 of 26 damaged refineries have been restored.

3. The largest criminal case in Russia's UAV industry: Alla Polovchenya, deputy head of the unmanned systems department of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, has been arrested + top managers of EFKO/"Transport of the Future". The essence — Chinese drones were passed off as Russian. The failure of the S-80 (1000 units, ~8 billion rubles) illustrates that state money in a venture model turns into "embezzlement" by definition.

4. The first known detailed combat video of the HX-2 "Karma" (Helsing) exposed the gap between the advertised "EW immunity" and reality: full autonomy kicks in only in the terminal phase after a human locks the target, and the weather "envelope" gives away a visible-band electro-optical seeker — the weak link is neither the airframe nor the radio channel, but machine vision through a single camera.

5. Attacks on Russian logistics have reached a new level: in 2 weeks, 8 large Wildberries warehouses (~1.05 million m²) were destroyed, and Ozon was attacked for the first time in Zelenodolsk. The strike on Perm (~1400 km) is the deepest against Russia's warehouse network.

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🛸 PRIORITY 1. UAVs, counter-UAV, military AI and breakthrough technologies

[TECH] Combat use of the HX-2 "Karma" (Helsing) — the autonomy architecture and the weak link of the seeker exposed

The first detailed video of the German strike UAV in use at the positions of the AFU's 59th Brigade source. Key points from the breakdown:

• Working range 60–70 km (spec sheet — 100), warhead 2.5 kg with a bay capacity of up to 4–4.5 kg, 5–7 sorties/day per crew.

• The failsafe upon loss of the radio link is a climb above the clouds (an attempt to restore the channel), not autonomous completion of the strike. This means full autonomy kicks in only in the terminal phase, after the navigator locks the target. The window for EW is the search/loitering phase.

• The weather envelope (cloud base >500 m, no fog/rain, "lens cleaning" in the pre-flight check) gives away a visible-band electro-optical seeker. The weak node is neither the airframe nor the radio channel, but machine vision through a single RGB camera: whatever blinds the camera blinds the weapon.

• The connecting link of the Helsing line is not the airframe but the Altra Recce-Strike software (portable between the HX-2 and the AQ-100/HF-1). Over-the-air updates shrink the adaptation cycle from months to days.

• Background: according to Bloomberg (January 2026), the customer refrained from new orders after troop trials; a figure of ~35% accuracy was cited.

update NOCTIS ZIRKA — interception of a jet-powered Shahed and announcement of version 2.0

Ukraine's NOCTIS (with Vyriy's support) has shown a successful interception of a jet-powered Geran-4 by the ZIRKA interceptor source. ZIRKA 2.0 has been announced: automatic delivery to the target area, a thermal imager with a detection range of up to 2 km, improved detection/guidance algorithms, automatic warhead detonation near the target.

update Geran/Gerbera towing an FPV on a cable — a new configuration

An unusual configuration has been recorded: a Gerbera tows an FPV drone on a rope/cable rather than on a standard release mount source. Flash (adviser to the president) confirms the observation, but its essence is not yet clear source. The possible logic is an air launch of an FPV interceptor or delivering a strike FPV deep into the rear.

[TECH] Patent RU 2860524: a combined-type interceptor UAV ("OYu-drone")

A Russian patent (O.Yu. Arefin, St. Petersburg) for a "flying wing" interceptor with 2 front/rear ducted fans and small arms inside the fuselage source. The PDF contains the full aiming kinematics (fuselage tilt angles via changing duct thrust), 5 design variants, the mechanics of recoil compensation when attacking from above (recoil = additional lift), protective barrel shutters. The key idea is to attack the target's horizontal projection (a large area) from a hover above/below instead of the side projection.

update Fire Point FP-1: a range of 3400 km confirmed, warhead 60 kg; FP-2 — 700 km, warhead up to 200 kg

The company has clarified the specifications of the line source. The FP-2 is positioned as a midle-strike (700 km, warhead up to 200 kg). At the same time, Russia for the first time struck the plant of the American Terminal Autonomy in Kyiv (maker of the AQ-400 Scythe, AQ-100 Bayonet, RQ-100 Scout) — Russia's first direct strike on a US company source.

update Fire Point FP-7/FP-7.x — the third public tests

Footage has been published of tests of the missile on which two products are being built: the FP-7 (surface-to-surface, ~200 km, warhead ~150 kg) and the FP-7.x (an anti-ballistic interceptor for the Freyja air defense system, interception at up to 80 km at an altitude of 20–25 km) source. Which variant was tested has not been disclosed.

Areal Vision — 3D target models for AI planning of drone missions (Ukraine)

The Ukrainian product creates full-fledged 3D models of facilities (an oil terminal is shown) for planning ground and unmanned operations source. The declared prospect: the operator selects the strike zone, and AI calculates the rest. A direct link to the campaign against refineries/terminals.

update TUALAJ-16300 CRPA anti-jam protection — 98 sets for Ukraine's Ukrjet

[TECH] Customs data revealed the purchase of 98 Turkish GNSS spatial anti-jam systems (a 16-element antenna, up to 15 independent pattern nulls, suppression >50 dB) for $3.38 million, ~$34.5 thousand/unit source. They are installed on Ukrainian UAVs for navigation resilience under EW.

Anubis: launchers with solid-propellant boosters for Shaheds on container platforms

[TECH] A breakdown of the deployment of Russian Anubis launchers with rocket boosters on vehicle chassis/in shipping containers source. Container camouflage within logistics flows makes all relevant freight transport a priority target. The booster compensates for the piston engine's weak thrust-to-weight ratio at launch.

DOVOD from OVOD — a UGV carrier for uncrewed FPV launch (Russia)

The DOVOD ground system (a Kurier UGV platform + drone ports + a relay + Ovod-10 FPVs) moves out 20 km from the operators and launches FPVs to a range of up to 35 km — in total, the operator is 55 km from the targets source. AI control is envisaged. An assassination attempt was made on Ovod's founder A. Cherezov — the first known case of an attack on a UAV developer in Russia source.

DevDroid Droid TW 40 — a wheeled UGV with a 40-mm Mk 19 (Ukraine)

A six-wheeled fire-support UGV: a Wolly 40 weapon module for the Mk 19 (or AGL-53), firing range 1.5 km, ballistic computer, thermal imager, coordinate-based aiming. Speed 13 km/h, range up to 70 km, up to 120 h on standby, control via Droid Box (radio/LTE/satellite). It has passed codification and been approved for the AFU source.

H.A.R.D.Y. — a line of Ukrainian UGVs on Brave1 Market

A previously uncovered line of 4 electric UGVs (ARGUS, MUL, FLEX, VANGUARD) has been found — from logistics to strike tasks, being prepared for codification source.

update EDRONE + OVES: a drone plant in Romania (Cluj-Napoca)

The Ukrainian-Romanian JV will launch production of ~1000 drones/month (FPVs, interceptors, reconnaissance drones) in autumn 2026 source. Another example of moving Ukrainian deftech production outside the country (cf. EDRONE above and relocation across the entire space).

Military AI in US/NATO/Taiwan exercises (Project Convergence C6, etc.)

A summary of tests source: COA-GPT (generative planning AI, cuts the development of courses of action from hours to seconds); a swarm package of LRPM with autonomous detection/engagement (deployment FY2027); Taiwan's manned-unmanned teaming (Aerosonde + Apache); Germany's Guardian C-UAS platform with the A²CE AI engine that generates attack scenarios; the ZenaDrone Interceptor P-1 (<$5000). The YFQ-42A/YFQ-44A went from concept to flight testing in less than 2 years.

Vektor design bureau adapters — +43% FPV speed for free (Russia)

A test: spacers that change the angle of the motor-propeller units gave the VT40 drone a speed increase from 140 to 200 km/h (+43%) — a simple and cheap solution for interceptors source.

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🛡 PRIORITY 2. Military innovation (Ukraine, Europe, NATO, the world)

update EU Sentinel Strike Challenge — 5 finalists of the loitering munition competition

The EDA selected five companies from 140+ applications: Helsing (Germany), Destinus (Netherlands), C-Astral (Slovenia), UAVision (Portugal), Spirit Aeronautical (Greece). In autumn 2026 — field trials at the Santa Margarida range (Portugal), a prize fund of €1.8 million, the key criterion is resilience across the entire combat cycle source. Importantly, 3 of the 5 companies have combat-proven solutions source.

update PAC-3 MSE — a record $53.86 billion Lockheed contract, tripling output by 2030

The Pentagon added $53.86 billion to the April order ($4.7 billion), for a total of $58.62 billion. The goal is to grow from ~600 to 2000 interceptors/year by 2030, with staff in Camden going from 1200 to 1850 people source. Criticism: Ukraine needs ~1200 PAC-3/year "here and now", while the US will reach 2000 only by 2030 — hence the priority of destroying the production of Iskanders and ballistic S-400s source.

update €3.47 billion to Ukraine under the Ukraine Support Loan; €2.5 billion for 16 Gripen E

The tranche will go to air defense, scaling up drones, and missiles source. The structure of the EU "reparations loan" (90 billion, 2026–27) has been disclosed: schedules 1–2 — 6 billion each for drones, the 3rd — 1.5 billion for medium/long-range missiles (JVs between Ukraine and EU countries for deep strikes), the 4th — 2.5 billion for Gripens, the 5th (in preparation) — air defense including Patriot source. EU bureaucracy is slowing things down: of 250 Ukrainian drone contracts, some have not been finalized — 1.1 billion is "hanging".

update Mobile fire groups made up of enterprise workers — Kuban, Crimea, Sevastopol

Enterprise workers in Krasnodar Krai are being recruited into MFGs for 50 thousand rubles/month, with a contract with the Russian MoD without being sent to the SMO zone source. Poddubny announced a "fundamentally new air defense system" in Russia: layered mobile fire groups along drone flight routes rather than point defense source. Specialists criticize the legal uncertainty of their status and the question of training.

update Rheinmetall is expanding production of propellants and propelling charges

An investment of €350 million (out of the €650 million Project Firepower) in the Nitrochemie plant (Aschau am Inn): doubling output, by 2028 — >4200 t of propellant and >1 million modular charges/year; the group's goal is 20 000 t/year by 2030 source. Reducing Europe's dependence on a limited number of global propellant producers.

update Argus XL is being integrated into Titan Multi-Sensor — a $500 million US Air Force C-UAS shield

Teledyne FLIR Argus XL (radar + optics + thermal imager) is being built into the AeroVironment Titan for round-the-clock detection of micro-drones in any weather; support for third-party RF sensors and effectors source.

SAP "Paperless Army" — the digital core of AFU resource management

[TECH] A PDF presentation of the program: an electronic requisition for receiving UAVs doubled the speed of issue and cut paperwork 7-fold (−100 000 sheets in half a year); ordering spare parts — from 10 to 2 days. 28 of 32 NATO countries use SAP source. A caveat from the source: the system is filled in by the same people who "fudged the inventory" — a risk of "digital corruption".

Latvia is expanding cooperation with Ukrainian deftech on UAVs

Memoranda between Latvia's Ministry of Defense/Ministry of Economics, LIAA, Baltic Forces, Riga Technical University and Ukrainian enterprises — investment, technology transfer, test ranges source.

update US nuclear submarines: $76.6 billion for 5 Columbia + 9 Virginia Block VI

General Dynamics Electric Boat and HII Newport News; completion by 2038 source. The first Virginia Block VI — not before April 2035.

Japan: the first live Tomahawk launch from a destroyer + F-2 tests with a new cruise missile

JS Chokai carried out the first Tomahawk launch (Japan is the third country after Australia and the Netherlands); up to 400 missiles in total, ~$1.03 billion, upgrading 8 Aegis destroyers source.

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⚔️ PRIORITY 3. The conflict around Ukraine — trends

• The war of infrastructure attrition is deepening. Russian strikes on Ukrainian refineries/logistics (fuel for the Bohdana self-propelled guns is running short) ↔ Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries (30% of capacity), Wildberries warehouses, CPC tankers (205 vessels since July 6). Both sides are hitting the rear — the front is almost static.

• The KN-23s are back. The first use of North Korean ballistic missiles in ~8 months — a signal of a new batch from the DPRK source.

• Testing NATO. A Kh-101 flew 90 km deep into Poland; F-16s did not intercept it. Tusk: "we were ready to shoot it down if it had continued its flight", but a cruise missile cannot be reliably predicted — a peacetime army is not prepared for rapid decision-making source.

• Russian advances: the North group — Mohrytsia, Yurchenkove, Malaya Slobodka; Center — Bilytske, Svitle (Dobropillia direction); the pace is slow (July: −1.0 km²/day in the Sloviansk direction vs. −18.2 in July 2025).

• Forecasting signal: Tusk — "the next 100 days may decide the outcome of the war, the chances are 50/50". A visit by Witkoff and Kushner to Kyiv is expected on August 24.

• Durov has been added to Russia's list of terrorists/extremists — a resonance in the information space against the backdrop of state bodies continuing to run channels on Telegram (a gap between the security decision and the platform's status).

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🛸 What's new in UAVs and counter-UAV (in brief)

• HX-2 "Karma" — limited autonomy exposed (terminal phase only) and the vulnerability of the optical seeker to weather/camouflage.

• NOCTIS ZIRKA 2.0 — thermal imager up to 2 km, automatic warhead detonation, automatic delivery to the target area.

• Gerbera towing an FPV on a cable — a new configuration of unclear purpose.

• DOVOD (Russia) — a UGV carrier, moving FPV launch out to 55 km from the operator.

• Droid TW 40 (Ukraine) — a wheeled UGV with a Mk 19, codified.

• Patriot ACM — a solid-propellant attitude control motor of the PAC-3 MSE (180 per missile, the size of an egg) surfaced at a "flea market" source.

• CRPA TUALAJ-16300 — 98 GNSS anti-jam sets for Ukrainian drones.

• ZenaDrone Interceptor P-1 — an interceptor for <$5000, flight tests have begun.

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🔍 Under the radar

• [TECH] Banderol (S8000) — refined specifications: range 350–400 km (previously thought to be 200–250), warhead 114 kg (49.5 kg of explosive); 2026 examples differ from 2025 ones — upgrades in the course of operation source. Only ↗31 — an underrated signal of the growing range of the light cruise missile.

• Hybrid laser recharging of drones (China): a perovskite photocell + thermoelectrics (the Seebeck effect) = efficiency of 38.49%; the problem — heating to 80–90 °C, solved with a nanocrystalline thermal barrier source. Still a prototype, but the direction is strategic.

• DARPA "Convergence": living biosensors for remote detection of chemical weapons (read out from drones), an open architecture for neural-network modeling of new toxins source. ↗19 — an early signal of a new class of sensors.

• Magnetic mass sensor (passive, cannot be jammed by EW): a breakdown of how magnetometric mines work — it reacts to changes in the field, an arming timer, position control source.

• [TECH] TUALAJ-16300 — a full engineering breakdown of the CRPA anti-jam protection (see above), ↗22.

• Physics AI (Luminary-SMART, nTop+Ansys): surrogate physics models without reliance on a computational mesh — multidisciplinary wing optimization for RCS/aerodynamics/deformations source. Dual use, underrated (↗3).

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🇨🇳 What are our Chinese comrades up to?

• The PLA has for the first time shown the destruction of uncrewed boats by KVD002 (CH-4) reconnaissance-strike drones source — a response to the growing USV threat.

• A full-size land-based electromagnetic catapult at the Xingcheng base (Liaoning): tests of carrier aviation takeoff/landing; the footage shows a Kongjing-600 AEW aircraft source.

• A wake-up-call incident: the American Lightfish USV (Seasats, ~$240 thousand) approached a Type 052D destroyer 105 km from Luzon and photographed it — the second such case this summer source. Chinese sailors missed the USV — a parallel with the lessons of the SMO that the PLA has not yet taken into account.

• Port of Gdynia (Poland): 2 of the 4 finalists in the tender for a dual-use NATO terminal ($1.3 billion) are linked to China (Mota-Engil/CCCC and Hutchison Ports). In 2023 Hutchison already refused a US military vessel carrying cargo for Poland/Ukraine source.

• The US has banned imports of new Chinese humanoid and quadruped robots (FCC, protection of AI infrastructure); Beijing threatened a response, with rare earth metals as a possible lever. China accounts for ~85% of the global humanoid robot market (Barclays) source.

• The hypersonic YJ-20 (range 1500 km) has been integrated onto Type 052D destroyers source.

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🌐 External analysis

• RUSI (Bronk): the drone war is turning into a war of factories. A drone consumes not only ammunition but also territory — it forces air defense to be pulled away from the front. "Cheap" interception comes at a high price in people (thousands of crews, posts, communications) and in the service life of expensive platforms. New equipment runs up against the AFU's old land-centric command source. This complements the Ukrainian-Russian space with a systemic view: the main effect of a drone is managing OTHER PEOPLE'S expenditures.

• AEI: the Pentagon is running out of missiles for a big war. Just 5 months of the campaign against Iran have critically depleted interceptor stocks — all the more so, the US is not ready for a protracted war with China. The shortage is the result of a years-long failure of both parties source. This calls into question the US ability to simultaneously supply Ukraine and Israel and keep a reserve for Taiwan.

• Brookings: the Pentagon knows how to sustain wars, but not how to end them. Military aid without a predetermined political goal does not bring the end of a war closer but raises it to a higher technological level. On Ukraine, Washington made the negotiation track a priority only by 2024 source.

• New Zealand is moving from experiments to the procurement of loitering munitions (priority — national developments), responding to the deteriorating situation source. Another indicator of global demand for loitering munitions following the lessons of Ukraine.

• Elroy Air Chaparral (US): the autonomous cargo UAV mastered 3 delivery modes in a single sortie without ground personnel (a drop from a hover, airdrop from 20 m, landing with unloading) in the absence of communications source. A direction of autonomous logistics that Russia tried (unsuccessfully) to cover with the S-80 project.

• An analysis of the fighting in the Dobropillia direction (Matveev): a Russian mechanized assault attempt with T-72s + the Arena APS (the first in ~1.5 years) ended in a rout by FPV drones — the Arena is outdated, and the APS ammunition capacity is smaller than the number of attacking drones. A promising counter is the Ukrainian net-based APS (it throws a net) source.

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